To explore the predictive value of bone glaprotein (BGP) and procollagen typeⅠN-terminal pro peptide (PⅠNP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) after operation.

100 OVCF patients who underwent percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) in Zhejiang Hospital from 2013 to 2016 were selected. The patients were followed up for more than 2 years after surgery, and the recurrence of fracture was the end point. The general information of the patients were collected, including gender, age, BMI, bone mineral density (BMD) T value, blood calcium value, BGP, PⅠNP, intraoperative bone cement injection. T test, rank sum test and Fisher exact rate method were used for single factor analysis, and meaningful indexes were substituted into multivariate Cox regression model for multiple factor analysis of fracture recurrence, and ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of BGP and PⅠNP for fracture recurrence.

100 patients with OVCF were followed up for 3~37 months after PKP, and 33 patients (22.45%) of them had recurrent fractures. The significant indexes of single factor analysis (age, BMD, BGP, PⅠNP) were substituted into multiple Cox proportional regression model, and the results showed that BGP and PⅠNP were still independent risk factors of fracture recurrence (HR=2.053, 95%CI=1.128-3.734, P < 0.05; HR=1.250, 95%CI=1.150-1.360, P < 0.01). ROC curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve predicted by BGP, PⅠNP and the combination was 0.794, 0.911 and 0.964 respectively; the predicted cut-off point value of BGP is 0.474, corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 72.7% and 25.48% respectively; the predicted cut-off point value of PⅠNP was 0.685, corresponding sensitivity and specificity are 0.879 and 0.194 respectively.

For patients with osteoporotic fracture after operation, the changes of bone metabolism can be evaluated by regular monitoring of serum BGP and p1np levels, so as to predict the risk of fracture recurrence early and give timely intervention measures.